BOTB odds

BOTB Odds Of Winning - Is It Good Value For Money?


Note: *The following article is purely for fun. It is based on individual opinions and does not constitute advice. The drawing of lottery numbers is entirely random. Please always gamble responsibly.


Is BOTB good value? Spoiler alert: It’s not. Let us explain...

Firstly, we should say that BOTB is not a lottery. BOTB is a competition with a skillful element required - Spot The Ball. However, similar to a lottery, you have a small stake/entry cost for a small chance of winning a large jackpot/prize.

It’s fair to say that BOTB is huge - operating since 1999, listed on the stock exchange since 2006 and have given away £32M worth of cars. They currently operate three prize draws per week - weekly dream car, weekly lifestyle and midweek car.

BOTB also seem to be very well loved and respected by their users - over four thousand 5 star reviews on TrustPilot, over ten thousand 5 star reviews on Feefo and close to half a million followers across social channels.

Is BOTB Good Value For Money?

This isn’t quite as simple as a lottery as there’s variables involved - depending how accurate your guess at Spot The Ball is has an impact on your odds of winning.

A few points to keep in mind:

  • The judges decide on the winning location. See the BOTB YouTube channel to see examples of how this judging happens.
  • If two players have the exact same winning location it is the player with the next closest ticket.
  • Although you don’t have to get the exact location the judges pick, more often than not the winner has got the exact same location as the judges. This is probably due to the sheer volume of players each week - someone is bound to be in the exact same location.
  • Price per ticket varies depending on the cost of the car you would like to win.

Let’s look at some examples:

Example 1: Low Accuracy Guess

BOTB guessing odds

There are 1,210,000 possible locations within the red square. If you were to say there is an equal chance of the judges picking any location within the red square then that would mean if you were to pick anywhere in the red square you would have a 1 in 1,210,000 chance of winning.

Example 2: Medium Accuracy Guess

BOTB guessing odds

There are 632,025 possible locations within the green square. If you were to say there is an equal chance of the judges picking any location within the green square then that would mean if you were to pick anywhere in the green square you would have a 1 in 632,025 chance of winning.

Example 3: High Accuracy Guess

BOTB guessing odds

There are 244,036 possible locations within the blue square. If you were to say there is an equal chance of the judges picking any location within the blue square then that would mean if you were to pick anywhere in the blue square you would have a 1 in 244,036 chance of winning.

Next, Let’s Calculate Value:

To calculate the value we use the following calculation:

(Odds of Winning ÷ (Prize ÷ Cost To Enter))

Mercedes G63 AMG
£146,450 value
£7 per BOTB entry
Low accuracy guess: (1,210,000 ÷ (146,450 ÷ 7)) = 57
Medium accuracy guess: (632,025 ÷ (146,450 ÷ 7)) = 30
High accuracy guess: (244,036 ÷ (146,450 ÷ 7)) = 11

Range Rover TDV6 Vogue SE
£90,255 car value
£4.30 per BOTB entry
Low accuracy guess: (1,210,000 ÷ (90,255 ÷ 4.3)) = 57
Medium accuracy guess: (632,025 ÷ (90,255 ÷ 4.3)) = 30
High accuracy guess: (244,036 ÷ (90,255 ÷ 4.3)) = 11

Land Rover Defender 110 SE D200
£52,625 car value
£2.55 BOTB entry
Low accuracy guess: (1,210,000 ÷ (52,625 ÷ 2.55)) = 58
Medium accuracy guess: (632,025 ÷ (52,625 ÷ 2.55)) = 30
High accuracy guess: (244,036 ÷ (52,625 ÷ 2.55)) = 11

Note: Lower numbers mean better value.

Firstly, as the odds improve when you have a more accurate guess, so does the value of the prize. Secondly, the value is almost identical regardless of the car - the price per ticket is adjusted for the value of the car.

How Does BOTB Compare To The UK National Lottery or Irish Lotto?

Using the same calculation as above we worked out the odds for UK National Lottery and the Irish Lottery to compare their value against BOTB:

Typical Prize Odds Of Winning Value
BOTB £50K - 100K* 1 in 1.2M Terrible Bet Now
BOTB £50K - 100K* 1 in 632K Very Poor Bet Now
BOTB £50K - 100K* 1 in 244K Average Bet Now
National lottery £10M* 1 in 45M Average Bet Now
Lottoland £5M* 1 in 10M Good Bet Now

Not good.

Put simply, unless you are a master at Spot The Ball, we would recommend betting on the Irish Lottery with Lottoland instead of playing BOTB.



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* Odds Disclaimer: The displayed odds are intended as a guide only and whilst we work hard to ensure they're up to date, they are subject to change from the operators. Odds correct as of 07/07/2019. Please always check odds on the betting operator site before placing any bets. Where the odds are the same our rating (promotions, usability, reputation) are taken into account. How do odds work?.

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