BOTB Odds Of Winning - Is It Good Value For Money?
Note: *The following article is purely for fun. It is based on individual opinions and does not constitute advice. The drawing of lottery numbers is entirely random. Please always gamble responsibly. #Ad. Find out more on our How Our Site Works page.
Is BOTB good value? Spoiler alert: It’s not. Let us explain...
Firstly, we should say that BOTB is not a lottery. BOTB is a competition with a skillful element required - Spot The Ball. However, similar to a lottery, you have a small stake/entry cost for a small chance of winning a large jackpot/prize.
It’s fair to say that BOTB is huge - operating since 1999, listed on the stock exchange since 2006 and have given away £32M worth of cars. They currently operate three prize draws per week - weekly dream car, weekly lifestyle and midweek car.
BOTB also seem to be very well loved and respected by their users - over four thousand 5 star reviews on TrustPilot, over ten thousand 5 star reviews on Feefo and close to half a million followers across social channels.
Is BOTB Good Value For Money?
This isn’t quite as simple as a lottery as there’s variables involved - depending how accurate your guess at Spot The Ball is has an impact on your odds of winning.
A few points to keep in mind:
- The judges decide on the winning location. See the BOTB YouTube channel to see examples of how this judging happens.
- If two players have the exact same winning location it is the player with the next closest ticket.
- Although you don’t have to get the exact location the judges pick, more often than not the winner has got the exact same location as the judges. This is probably due to the sheer volume of players each week - someone is bound to be in the exact same location.
- Price per ticket varies depending on the cost of the car you would like to win.
Let’s look at some examples:
Example 1: Low Accuracy Guess
There are 1,210,000 possible locations within the red square. If you were to say there is an equal chance of the judges picking any location within the red square then that would mean if you were to pick anywhere in the red square you would have a 1 in 1,210,000 chance of winning.
Example 2: Medium Accuracy Guess
There are 632,025 possible locations within the green square. If you were to say there is an equal chance of the judges picking any location within the green square then that would mean if you were to pick anywhere in the green square you would have a 1 in 632,025 chance of winning.
Example 3: High Accuracy Guess
There are 244,036 possible locations within the blue square. If you were to say there is an equal chance of the judges picking any location within the blue square then that would mean if you were to pick anywhere in the blue square you would have a 1 in 244,036 chance of winning.
Next, Let’s Calculate Value:
To calculate the value we use the following calculation:
(Odds of Winning ÷ (Prize ÷ Cost To Enter))
Mercedes G63 AMG
£146,450 value
£7 per BOTB entry
Low accuracy guess: (1,210,000 ÷ (146,450 ÷ 7)) = 57
Medium accuracy guess: (632,025 ÷ (146,450 ÷ 7)) = 30
High accuracy guess: (244,036 ÷ (146,450 ÷ 7)) = 11
Range Rover TDV6 Vogue SE
£90,255 car value
£4.30 per BOTB entry
Low accuracy guess: (1,210,000 ÷ (90,255 ÷ 4.3)) = 57
Medium accuracy guess: (632,025 ÷ (90,255 ÷ 4.3)) = 30
High accuracy guess: (244,036 ÷ (90,255 ÷ 4.3)) = 11
Land Rover Defender 110 SE D200
£52,625 car value
£2.55 BOTB entry
Low accuracy guess: (1,210,000 ÷ (52,625 ÷ 2.55)) = 58
Medium accuracy guess: (632,025 ÷ (52,625 ÷ 2.55)) = 30
High accuracy guess: (244,036 ÷ (52,625 ÷ 2.55)) = 11
Note: Lower numbers mean better value.
Firstly, as the odds improve when you have a more accurate guess, so does the value of the prize. Secondly, the value is almost identical regardless of the car - the price per ticket is adjusted for the value of the car.
How Does BOTB Compare To The UK National Lottery or Irish Lotto?
Using the same calculation as above we worked out the odds for UK National Lottery and the Irish Lottery to compare their value against BOTB:
| Typical Prize | Odds Of Winning | Value | ||
 |
£50K - 100K* | 1 in 1.2M | Terrible |  |
 |
£50K - 100K* | 1 in 632K | Very Poor | |
 |
£50K - 100K* | 1 in 244K | Average | |
 |
£10M* | 1 in 45M | Average | |
| Irish Lotto | £5M* | 1 in 10M | Good | |
Not good.
Put simply, unless you are a master at Spot The Ball, we would recommend betting on the Irish Lottery or playing the UK National Lottery.
User Comments (10)
Latest News
- Safer Gambling Week 2025
- New Features: Draw Simulators and Hot & Cold Theoretical Winnings
- Betfred's Gifty 50 - Daily Free Bets with a Chance to Win £1M+
- Understanding The Odds: National Lottery vs. Premium Bonds
- Finding The Best Lotto Betting Odds Just Got Easier
- Lottery Betting Combinations (a.k.a Permutations) Explained
- Lotto Betting Special Markets
Watch The 49's Draw Live
Watch both Lunchtime (12:49) and Teatime draws (17:49) on the bet365 website & app.
Join bet365 I already have a bet365 account*In order to view the draw you will need an account with bet365. You will also need to be logged in with money in the account or you have placed a bet within the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
UK/IRE
USA
ZA
Starting Soon:
Leighan, this is correct for playing the lottery but not necessarily for BOTB. It's a game of skill so even though you have bought more tickets, it may not necessarily increase your 'chances' of a win.
In the example image given by Oliver, if you bought 50 tickets and placed every one outside the red square, it's fair to say you have close to zero 'chance' of winning as you are woefully inadequate skill wise.
Playing BOTB is entertaining too, choosing the car, playing the game, reviewing the results, comparing against a mate's entry...all adds to the fun.
By PrizeDeck
Nov 24, 2025
Hi, this isnt how odds work unfortunately, you wouldn't have a 1 in 22.5 million chance, you would have a 2 in 45 million chance. So if you bought 22.5 million tickets you would have a 22.5 million in 45 million or 1 in 2 chance. Buying 2 tickets does not halve your odds of winning
By Danny
Nov 24, 2025
Hi
Yes, buying more tickets is the only way to increase chances (the same as in lotteries).
If you have one ticket, the odds are 1 in 50,000. 2 tickets = 1 in 25,000.
this confuses some people but the way to visualise it is this: for 1 in 50,000 odds, you have one ticket in there among 50,000 total.
if you have 2 tickets, you have 2 among the 50,000 which simplifies to 1 in 25,000. Think of your entries evenly spread across the lexicographical format. if you have lottery tickets lined up from the first possible combination (1,2,3,4,5,6) to (54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59) there are 45m+ combinations in that list. 1 ticket means 1 in 45m, 2 tickets means 1 in 22,500,000. so you would 'theoretically' have 1 ticket at say, 22.5m and 1 at 45m. And it scales up. So if you had 22.5m tickets, you'd have a ticket in every other spot on the lex...1, 3, 5 etc. Hopefully this helps make sense of it.
this scales up the more you have.
By Leighan Meddick
Nov 24, 2025
The exact pixel happens regularly, you can check the winning pixel for any games that have been concluded/judged. Buying more tickets does increase your chances but remember, it's a game of skill so understanding how it works, how the judges decide, etc optimises your skill and thus improves your 'chance' of winning.
Buying lower priced tickets would certainly help...
By PrizeDeck
Nov 24, 2025
Oliver, I was wondering about the question raised before betting again on BOTB and it seems you are wrong on this one & need to re-assess how you study the odds of winning. If it were 1 chance on 1.2M (pixels) needed to win, than there would be no winners for weeks.
Calculating the odds of winning without knowing the number of players (the winner will be the closer to the right answer / pixel (the exact pixel must almost never happen), even if it is far from the correct answer), a confidential information is impossible, but PrizeDeck's estimate of 1:50k vs yours of 1:1.2M (x24 less chances predicted by you) seems to be way closer to reality.
If there is a way to try to optimize winning chances with an equal budget spend, am I right guessing it is by aiming at the lower-priced tickets, allowing to buy more tickets thus having more chances to win ... a smaller prize, but the aim here is to be lucky winning?
By lejeunepat
Nov 24, 2025
You're welcome, thanks.
By PrizeDeck
Nov 24, 2025
awesome comment - thanks for this.
By Leighan Meddick
Nov 24, 2025
Thanks for your comments but it's wrong to assume that I am more intelligent than you :-)
These are just my insights/observations and after playing the game for a few years (won the £200 runner up prize on 2 occasions) you get a fair idea as to how it works and the numbers/probability of winning.
By PrizeDeck
Nov 24, 2025
Great,logic and math there . You prove that nothing should be took for face value. I'm quite naive, and your comment turns my thought 360degrees. Thank You for being more intelligent than myself, and making me think. Great stuff.
By Paul Spiller
Nov 24, 2025
Your calculations for the odds for winning BOTB are fundamentally flawed. Your pixel count may be correct but you have not taken into account the number of players and entries that you are competing against. If you are the ONLY player in a game week, then the chances of winning are 1:1. You are competing against others, whoever is closest to where the judges think the X should be, wins.
A quick calculation (a ballpark estimate) based on their weekly revenues (around £340K), split across their main game, midweek game and lifestyle comp would suggest that there are around 50,000 entries (could be less, could be more) per week. Therefore, your odds are 1:50,000. More entries coupled with practice and skill will increase your chances.
You will need to revise your calculations accordingly....
By PrizeDeck
Nov 24, 2025