OLIVER L. Author
Last Updated: 7th September 2026
After working in the gambling industry for over a decade, Oliver spotted an opportunity to setup a resource for lottery bettors. CompareTheLotto.com was founded in 2014, with Bet49s.com and Bet49s.co.za following shortly after. The aim is to find the best odds, offers and information for lottery bettors.
Note: *The following article is purely for fun. It is based on individual opinions and does not constitute advice. The drawing of lottery numbers is entirely random. Please always gamble responsibly. #Ad. Find out more on our How Our Site Works page.
The Irish Lotto has had its first significant overhaul in eight years. From September 2026 the draw uses fewer balls, and there is now a third draw each week. The first draw under the new rules took place on Saturday 5 September, and the first-ever Monday draw takes place tonight, 7 September.
When a bookmaker prices an Irish Lotto ball-matching bet, the starting point is the genuine mathematical chance of the outcome. Take fewer balls out of the pool and every outcome becomes more likely — so the true odds shorten, and the bookmaker’s price shortens with them.
The most popular bet on the market is three balls without the bonus ball. Before the change, the best price available was 700/1. Today the best price is 625/1.
Here is how one operator, Betfred, has repriced across the board:
| Balls matched | Old odds | New odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6/1 | 11/2 |
| 2 | 60/1 | 55/1 |
| 3 | 700/1 | 625/1 |
| 4 | 8500/1 | 7500/1 |
| 5 | 150000/1 | 125000/1 |
| Balls matched | Old odds | New odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5/1 | 9/2 |
| 2 | 45/1 | 40/1 |
| 3 | 400/1 | 350/1 |
| 4 | 4500/1 | 3750/1 |
| 5 | 50000/1 | 37500/1 |
Every price is shorter than it was. At first glance that looks like straightforwardly worse news for bettors. But a shorter price on a more likely outcome is not automatically worse value — it depends on whether the odds have shortened by more or less than the underlying probability.
So we did the sums.
Take the three-ball bet without the bonus ball.
Under the old 47-ball format, the true chance of picking three numbers and seeing all three come up in the six main balls was 1 in 811. Betfred’s price was 700/1.
Under the new 45-ball format, that same bet has a true chance of 1 in 710. Betfred’s price is 625/1.
Running both through our margin calculation gives:
| Old (47 balls) | New (45 balls) | |
|---|---|---|
| True chance | 1 in 811 | 1 in 710 |
| Bookmaker odds | 700/1 | 625/1 |
| Margin | 1.95% | 1.88% |
The margin is lower than it was. On this particular bet, with this particular bookmaker, the three-ball bet is better value today than it was a week ago* — the price has come in, but not by quite as much as the underlying probability improved.
Margin is the built-in edge a bookmaker keeps on a bet. It’s the gap between the chance the odds imply and the real mathematical chance of the outcome. The bigger the gap, the more the bookmaker keeps over the long run — and the worse the value for the bettor.
Our method:
Applied to the old format: 700/1 against a true chance of 1 in 811 gives a margin of 1.95%. Under the new format: 625/1 against a true chance of 1 in 710 gives 1.88%.
* Based on Betfred’s three-ball, no-bonus price only, compared against the same bet before the format change. Margins vary by bookmaker and by the number of balls selected.
Not much, beyond one practical step: re-check the prices you were used to. Every bookmaker has repriced, and they have not all moved by the same amount. Where the market was closely bunched at 700/1 on the three-ball bet before, the new prices are spread more widely — the difference between the best and worst price on the same bet is now meaningful.
Look at what that spread is worth. Betfred are top of the market on three balls without the bonus ball at 625/1. William Hill price the identical bet at 550/1. Same three numbers, same draw, same stake — but a winning £1 line returns £626 with Betfred against £551 with William Hill. That is £75 of the same win left on the table, and on a £5 line the gap stretches to £375.
Plus, at Betfred you have a welcome offer for new Lotto bettors:
Every bookmaker, repriced for the new 45-ball format
Irish Lotto OddsYou can also check the latest Irish Lotto results and see which numbers have been running hot and cold under the new format.
The displayed odds are intended as a guide only and, whilst we work hard to ensure they’re up to date, they are subject to change by the operators. All bookmakers listed are licensed and regulated by the UK Gambling Commission and require you to be 18 or over.
This article is for information only and does not constitute betting advice. Betting should be treated as entertainment and never as a source of income. If gambling is causing you or someone you know harm, free confidential support is available at BeGambleAware.org or, in Ireland, gamblingcare.ie.
Please always gamble responsibly.
No comments yet. Be the first to comment!